Pair #6878

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12963

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 817

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Smalley has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:04Z

Reasoning: If Alex Smalley leads after Round 2, he is still in the tournament and will have made the cut (the cut is typically made after Round 2). Leading after Round 2 means he completed Round 2 and proceeds, so he makes the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not require leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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