Pair #6873

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-ASMA

Will Alex Smalley win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 601003

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ASMA

Valero Texas Open: Will Alex Smalley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Alex Smalley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 375

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Smalley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:08:04Z

Reasoning: If Alex Smalley wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — top 5 does not require winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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