Pair #6860

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-APUT

Will Andrew Putnam lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Andrew Putnam
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22853

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Putnam is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-APUT

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Putnam make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Andrew Putnam
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 288

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andrew Putnam has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:07:44Z

Reasoning: If Andrew Putnam leads at the end of Round 2, he is still in the tournament and will make the cut (the cut is made after Round 2, and the leader cannot be cut). The reverse is not true — making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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