Pair #6855

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-JPOS

Valero Texas Open: Will J.T. Poston finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.T. Poston
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 778

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.T. Poston finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JPOS

Valero Texas Open: Will J.T. Poston make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: J.T. Poston
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 676

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.T. Poston has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:07:44Z

Reasoning: If J.T. Poston finishes top 10, he must have made the cut to play all four rounds. You cannot finish top 10 without making the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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