Pair #6846

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-MPAV

Will Matthieu Pavon win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6018

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthieu Pavon wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MPAV

Valero Texas Open: Will Matthieu Pavon finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matthieu Pavon
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 223

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthieu Pavon finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:07:24Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily in the top 5. The reverse does not hold as a top 5 finish need not be a win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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