Pair #6836

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16217

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TOLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Thorbjorn Olesen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Thorbjorn Olesen
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 370

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thorbjorn Olesen has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:07:05Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in a tournament requires completing all four rounds, which necessitates making the cut. A top 20 finish logically implies making the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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