Pair #683

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-RCAS

Will Ricky Castillo lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1291

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ricky Castillo is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-RCAS

Will Ricky Castillo win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 346878

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ricky Castillo wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:21Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 2 (a player can come from behind), and leading after Round 2 does not guarantee winning. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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