Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VAC26-RCAS
Valspar Championship: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3068
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ricky Castillo finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-RCAS
Valspar Championship: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18143
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ricky Castillo finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:21Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10. But finishing top 10 does not imply finishing top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A