Pair #6790

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-LHOD

Valero Texas Open: Will Lee Hodges make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2642

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-LHOD

Valero Texas Open: Will Lee Hodges finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Lee Hodges
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 708

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lee Hodges finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:05:50Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not imply finishing top 5, and finishing top 5 implies making the cut (not the other way around). Actually top 5 → made cut is true, but the question asks about KXPGAMAKECUT as antecedent, which does not imply top 5. And top 5 does imply made cut, so the antecedent should be KXPGATOP5. Re-evaluating: KXPGATOP5-VATO26-LHOD implies KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-LHOD.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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