Pair #6782

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-DFOR

Will David Ford lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15482

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-DFOR

Valero Texas Open: Will David Ford make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: David Ford
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 272

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If David Ford has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:05:28Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 means the player has completed two rounds and is at the top of the leaderboard. In a standard PGA Tour event, the cut is made after Round 2, so the Round 2 leader necessarily makes the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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