Pair #6758

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-ADUM

Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1972

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ADUM

Valero Texas Open: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 682

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:04:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not necessitate a top 5 finish — a player can fade over the weekend. And finishing top 5 does not require leading after Round 2. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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