Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ADUM
Valero Texas Open: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 682
YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-ADUM
Valero Texas Open: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9374
YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.2200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:04:48Z
Reasoning: If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A