Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-ADUM
Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1972
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrien Dumont De Chassart is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-VATO26-ADUM
Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart win the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 81420
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrien Dumont De Chassart wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:04:48Z
Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 2 — a player can win from behind. And leading after Round 2 does not guarantee winning. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A