Pair #675

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-RCAS

Valspar Championship: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18143

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ricky Castillo finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RCAS

Valspar Championship: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27025

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ricky Castillo finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:21Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20. But finishing top 20 does not imply finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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