Pair #6742

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-BCAU

Valero Texas Open: Will Bud Cauley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1793

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-BCAU

Valero Texas Open: Will Bud Cauley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bud Cauley
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4069

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bud Cauley finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:04:28Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). Top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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