Pair #673

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-RCAS

Will Ricky Castillo win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 346878

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Ricky Castillo wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RCAS

Valspar Championship: Will Ricky Castillo finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ricky Castillo
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27025

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ricky Castillo finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:21Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is inside top 20. But finishing top 20 does not imply winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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