Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR04PAUTIA-PAU
Will Tommy Paul win the Paul vs Tiafoe : Semifinal match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-04-04T20:10:00Z
Volume: 4136
YES ask: 0.6700
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Paul wins the Paul vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXFOMEN-26-PAU
Will Tommy Paul win the French Open?
Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Tommy Paul
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 412288
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Paul wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:03:49Z
Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning this Houston semifinal, and winning this Houston semifinal does not imply winning the French Open. These are entirely separate tournaments with no logical dependency.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.3600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A