Pair #6714

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR04PAUTIA-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Paul vs Tiafoe : Semifinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-04-04T20:10:00Z
Volume: 1834

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the Paul vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXFOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 1214820

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:03:49Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open does not require winning this Houston semifinal, and winning this Houston semifinal does not imply winning the French Open. These are entirely separate tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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