Pair #6713

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-FTIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 556

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26APR04PAUTIA-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Paul vs Tiafoe : Semifinal match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-04-04T20:10:00Z
Volume: 1834

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Frances Tiafoe wins the Paul vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Houston Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:03:49Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning this specific Houston semifinal match, and winning this Houston semifinal does not imply winning a Grand Slam. These are independent events with no logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -39.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -43.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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