Pair #6711

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1137

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JSPA

Valero Texas Open: Will J.J. Spaun make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 722

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:03:49Z

Reasoning: If Spaun leads after Round 2, he has completed Round 2 and is at the top of the leaderboard, meaning he necessarily makes the cut. The cut is made after Round 2, and the leader always makes the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not require leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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