Pair #6707

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2321

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1137

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:03:28Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and leading after Round 2 of the Valero Texas Open are independent events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.33% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.05% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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