Pair #6692

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9078

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 262

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:03:12Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 means Penge has completed two rounds and is at the top of the leaderboard. The cut is made after Round 2, so the Round 2 leader necessarily makes the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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