Pair #6686

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-ANOV

Will Andrew Novak lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4271

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-ANOV

Valero Texas Open: Will Andrew Novak finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Andrew Novak
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 651

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Andrew Novak finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:02:53Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee finishing top 5 — a player can fade over the final two rounds. Finishing top 5 does not require having led after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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