Pair #6674

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JTHO

Masters Tournament: Will Justin Thomas finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 13566

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:02:31Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily the Masters. A top 5 Masters finish does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.25% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +2.96% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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