Pair #6657

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 328470

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 49741

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:02:13Z

Reasoning: Leading after R3 does not require having led after R2 (could have been behind after R2 and moved to the lead in R3), and leading after R2 does not guarantee leading after R3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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