Pair #6654

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 49741

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2924574

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:02:13Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open does not require leading after R3 (could be behind after R3 and win in R4), and leading after R3 does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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