Pair #6653

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8683

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 49741

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:02:13Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and leading after R3 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events at different tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -55.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -59.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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