Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JSPI
Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 82409
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JSPI
Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 141398
YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:54Z
Reasoning: If Spieth finishes top 10 at the Masters, he necessarily also finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A