Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TKAN
Valspar Championship: Will Takumi Kanaya finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Takumi Kanaya
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6912
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Takumi Kanaya finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TKAN
Valspar Championship: Will Takumi Kanaya finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Takumi Kanaya
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12598
YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Takumi Kanaya finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:06:05Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A