Pair #6637

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JSPI

Masters Tournament: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 82409

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:36Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the 4 majors, not necessarily the Masters, so it doesn't imply a top 10 at the Masters. A top 10 at the Masters doesn't imply winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -4.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -9.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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