Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI
All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?
Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-JSPI
Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 281
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:36Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to leading after Round 2 of the Valero Texas Open, which is not a major. No implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-6.39%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0100
Days to maturity:
55
Hurdle yield:
4.21%
Excess yield:
-10.60%
BELOW HURDLE