Pair #6630

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-XSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 120827

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:36Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the 4 majors, not necessarily the Masters, so no implication toward top 5 at Masters. A top 5 finish at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -10.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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