Pair #6629

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-XSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 120827

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors requires a top 10 at the Masters, but not necessarily top 5. Conversely, finishing top 5 at the Masters alone does not imply top 10 in all 4 majors. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 31.12% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: +26.91% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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