Pair #6627

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 237904

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 90935

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:36Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — he could finish between 6th and 20th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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