Pair #6626

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 115037

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 90935

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:14Z

Reasoning: Same tournament. If McIlroy finishes top 10 at the Masters, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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