Pair #6625

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

Rules

If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 90935

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:14Z

Reasoning: McIlroy winning a major in 2026 could be any of the four majors. Winning a different major (e.g., US Open) does not imply a top 20 at the Masters, and a top 20 at the Masters doesn't mean he won a major. No necessary implication.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -53.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -57.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue