Pair #6624

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-RMCI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 35114

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 90935

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0400
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:14Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy finishes top 10 in ALL four majors, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which implies top 20 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold — top 20 at the Masters alone does not mean top 10 in all four majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.19% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8300
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -102.40% BELOW HURDLE

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