Pair #6621

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JRAH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17422

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JRAH

Masters Tournament: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 77668

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:14Z

Reasoning: Rahm winning a major in 2026 could be any of the four majors. If he wins the PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open, it does not imply a top 5 at the Masters. And a top 5 at the Masters doesn't mean he won a major. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.21% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +2.93% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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