Pair #6620

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JRAH

Will Jon Rahm win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6876852

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-JRAH

Masters Tournament: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 77668

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:14Z

Reasoning: Same tournament. If Rahm wins the Masters, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily a top 5 finish. The reverse does not hold — top 5 doesn't mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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