Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-MAST26-HMAT
Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 41050
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-HMAT
Valero Texas Open: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26261
YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:01:14Z
Reasoning: These are different tournaments (Valero Texas Open vs Masters). A top 20 finish at Valero has no logical bearing on a top 10 finish at the Masters, and vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.3500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A