Pair #6614

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-HMAT

Masters Tournament: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 41050

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1032703

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:00:53Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open (a non-major) has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at The Masters. These are separate tournaments and neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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