Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-TFIN
Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?
Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12650
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFIN
Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau make the cut?
Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 916
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tony Finau has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:00:53Z
Reasoning: If Finau leads after Round 3, he must have made the cut to still be playing in Round 3. The cut occurs after Round 2, so playing in Round 3 logically necessitates having made the cut.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$2.0000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A