Pair #6603

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4586

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 3 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12650

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:00:53Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major has no logical connection to leading after Round 3 of the Valero Texas Open, which is not a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.68% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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