Pair #6601

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-NAV

Will Emma Navarro win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Emma Navarro
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 36245

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Emma Navarro wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ENAV

Will Emma Navarro win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Emma Navarro
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 709

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Emma Navarro wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: The French Open is one of the four Grand Slams. If Emma Navarro wins the French Open, she necessarily wins a Grand Slam in 2026. The reverse is not true — she could win a different Grand Slam without winning the French Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -93.57% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -97.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue