Pair #660

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-WCLA

Valspar Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5451

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:05:49Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship, a separate non-major event. No necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -23.49% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -27.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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