Pair #66

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR16SVASMI-SMI

Will Colton Smith win the Svajda vs Smith : Qualification Round 1 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Colton Smith
Expiration: 2026-03-16T18:00:00Z
Volume: 312353

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Colton Smith wins the Svajda vs Smith professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR16SVASMI-2-SMI

Will Colton Smith win set 2 in the Zachary Svajda vs Colton Smith match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Colton Smith
Expiration: 2026-03-16T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1599

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Colton Smith wins set 2 in the Zachary Svajda vs Colton Smith professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Qualification Round 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-17T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Smith can win the match without winning set 2 (e.g., winning sets 1 and 3). And winning set 2 alone does not guarantee winning the match. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:18:14Z

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