Pair #6596

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3691

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR04PEGJOV-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Pegula vs Jovic : Semifinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-04-04T18:00:00Z
Volume: 9952

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the Pegula vs Jovic professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a specific WTA Charleston semifinal match. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6400
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -63.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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