Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-PIT
Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1631418
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPRES-26-PIT
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?
Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 599
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Pittsburgh Penguins wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:00:31Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals does not require having the best regular season record (President's Trophy), and winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
0.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-4.22%
BELOW HURDLE