Pair #6591

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-PIT

Will Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1631418

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-PIT

Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Pittsburgh Penguins
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 599

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pittsburgh Penguins wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-04T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals does not require having the best regular season record (President's Trophy), and winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -4.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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