Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR02MERMAN-MAN
Will Adrian Mannarino win the Merida vs Mannarino : Round Of 16 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Adrian Mannarino
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 165843
YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrian Mannarino wins the Merida vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02MERMAN-1-MAN
Will Adrian Mannarino win set 1 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Adrian Mannarino
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 989
YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.3600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Adrian Mannarino wins set 1 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:15:50Z
Reasoning: Winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match, and winning the match does not require winning set 1. No logical necessity.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.4000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A