Pair #6584

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR02MERMAN-MAN

Will Adrian Mannarino win the Merida vs Mannarino : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Adrian Mannarino
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 165843

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrian Mannarino wins the Merida vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02MERMAN-2-MAN

Will Adrian Mannarino win set 2 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Adrian Mannarino
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 215

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrian Mannarino wins set 2 in the Daniel Merida vs Adrian Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:15:50Z

Reasoning: Winning set 2 does not guarantee winning the match, and winning the match does not require winning set 2. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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